| Understanding
Opportunities and Risks in Futures Trading
Table of Contents:
-
Introduction
-
Futures Markets: What, Why & Who
- The Market
Participants
- What is
a Futures Contract?
- The
Process of Price Discovery
- After the
Closing Bell
- The
Arithmetic of Futures
- Trading
- Margins
- Basic
Trading Strategies
- Buying
(Going Long) to Profit from an Expected Price Increase
Selling
- (Going
Short) to Profit from an Expected Price Decrease
Spreads
- Participating
in Futures Trading
- Deciding
How to Participate
-
Regulation of Futures Trading
-
Establishing an Account
- What to
Look for in a Futures Contract
- The
Contract Unit
- How
Prices are Quoted
- Minimum
Price Changes
- Daily
Price Limits
-
Position Limits
-
Understanding (and Managing) the Risks of Futures
Trading
- Choosing
a Futures Contract
-
Liquidity
- Timing
- Stop Orders
- Spreads
- Options
on Futures Contracts
- Buying Call
Options
- Buying Put
Options
- How
Option Premiums are Determined
- Selling
Options
- In Closing
INTRODUCTION
Futures markets have been described
as continuous auction markets and as clearing houses for
the latest information about supply and demand. They are
the meeting places of buyers and sellers of an
ever-expanding list of commodities that today includes
agricultural products, metals, petroleum, financial
instruments, foreign currencies and stock indexes.
Trading has also been initiated in options on futures
contracts, enabling option buyers to participate in
futures markets with known risks.
Notwithstanding the rapid growth and
diversification of futures markets, their primary
purpose remains the same as it has been for nearly a
century and a half, to provide an efficient and
effective mechanism for the management of price risks.
By buying or selling futures contracts--contracts that
establish a price level now for items to be delivered
later--individuals and businesses seek to achieve what
amounts to insurance against adverse price changes. This
is called hedging.
Volume has increased from 14 million
futures contracts traded in 1970 to 179 million futures
and options on futures contracts traded in 1985.
Other futures market participants
are speculative investors who accept the risks that
hedgers wish to avoid. Most speculators have no
intention of making or taking delivery of the commodity
but, rather, seek to profit from a change in the price.
That is, they buy when they anticipate rising prices and
sell when they anticipate declining prices. The
interaction of hedgers and speculators helps to provide
active, liquid and competitive markets. Speculative
participation in futures trading has become increasingly
attractive with the availability of alternative methods
of participation. Whereas many futures traders continue
to prefer to make their own trading decisions--such as
what to buy and sell and when to buy and sell--others
choose to utilize the services of a professional trading
advisor, or to avoid day-to-day trading responsibilities
by establishing a fully managed trading account or
participating in a commodity pool which is similar in
concept to a mutual fund.
For those individuals who fully
understand and can afford the risks which are involved,
the allocation of some portion of their capital to
futures trading can provide a means of achieving greater
diversification and a potentially higher overall rate of
return on their investments. There are also a number of
ways in which futures can be used in combination with
stocks, bonds and other investments.
Speculation in futures contracts,
however, is clearly not appropriate for everyone. Just
as it is possible to realize substantial profits in a
short period of time, it is also possible to incur
substantial losses in a short period of time. The
possibility of large profits or losses in relation to
the initial commitment of capital stems principally from
the fact that futures trading is a highly leveraged form
of speculation. Only a relatively small amount of money
is required to control assets having a much greater
value. As we will discuss and illustrate, the leverage
of futures trading can work for you when prices move in
the direction you anticipate or against you when prices
move in the opposite direction.
It is not the purpose of this
brochure to suggest that you should--or should
not--participate in futures trading. That is a decision
you should make only after consultation with your broker
or financial advisor and in light of your own financial
situation and objectives.
Intended to help provide you with
the kinds of information you should first obtain--and
the questions you should seek answers to--in regard to
any investment you are considering:
* Information about the investment
itself and the risks involved
* How readily your investment or
position can be liquidated when such action is necessary
or desired
* Who the other market participants
are
* Alternate methods of participation
* How prices are arrived at
* The costs of trading
* How gains and losses are realized
* What forms of regulation and
protection exist
* The experience, integrity and
track record of your broker or advisor
* The financial stability of the
firm with which you are dealing
In sum, the information you need to
be an informed investor.
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FUTURES MARKET
The frantic shouting and signaling of bids and offers
on the trading floor of a futures exchange undeniably
convey an impression of chaos. The reality however, is
that chaos is what futures markets replaced. Prior to
the establishment of central grain markets in the
mid-nineteenth century, the nation farmers carted their
newly harvested crops over plank roads to major
population and transportation centers each fall in
search of buyers. The seasonal glut drove prices to
giveaway levels and, indeed, to throwaway levels as
grain often rotted in the streets or was dumped in
rivers and lakes for lack of storage. Come spring,
shortages frequently developed and foods made from corn
and wheat became barely affordable luxuries. Throughout
the year, it was each buyer and seller for himself with
neither a place nor a mechanism for organized,
competitive bidding. The first central markets were
formed to meet that need. Eventually, contracts were
entered into for forward as well as for spot (immediate)
delivery. So-called forwards were the forerunners of
present day futures contracts.
Spurred by the need to manage price and interest rate
risks that exist in virtually every type of modern
business, today's futures markets have also become major
financial markets. Participants include mortgage bankers
as well as farmers, bond dealers as well as grain
merchants, and multinational corporations as well as
food processors, savings and loan associations, and
individual speculators.
Futures prices arrived at through competitive bidding
are immediately and continuously relayed around the
world by wire and satellite. A farmer in Nebraska, a
merchant in Amsterdam, an importer in Tokyo and a
speculator in Ohio thereby have simultaneous access to
the latest market-derived price quotations. And, should
they choose, they can establish a price level for future
delivery--or for speculative purposes--simply by having
their broker buy or sell the appropriate contracts.
Images created by the fast-paced activity of the trading
floor notwithstanding, regulated futures markets are a
keystone of one of the world's most orderly envied and
intensely competitive marketing systems. Should you at
some time decide to trade in futures contracts, either
for speculation or in connection with a risk management
strategy, your orders to buy or sell would be
communicated by phone from the brokerage office you use
and then to the trading pit or ring for execution by a
floor broker. If you are a buyer, the broker will seek a
seller at the lowest available price. If you are a
seller, the broker will seek a buyer at the highest
available price. That's what the shouting and signaling
is about.
In either case, the person who takes the opposite
side of your trade may be or may represent someone who
is a commercial hedger or perhaps someone who is a
public speculator. Or, quite possibly, the other party
may be an independent floor trader. In becoming
acquainted with futures markets, it is useful to have at
least a general understanding of who these various
market participants are, what they are doing and why.
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Hedgers
The details of hedging can be somewhat complex but
the principle is simple. Hedgers are individuals and
firms that make purchases and sales in the futures
market solely for the purpose of establishing a known
price level--weeks or months in advance--for something
they later intend to buy or sell in the cash market
(such as at a grain elevator or in the bond market). In
this way they attempt to protect themselves against the
risk of an unfavorable price change in the interim. Or
hedgers may use futures to lock in an acceptable margin
between their purchase cost and their selling price.
Consider this example:
A jewelry manufacturer will need to buy additional
gold from his supplier in six months. Between now and
then, however, he fears the price of gold may increase.
That could be a problem because he has already published
his catalog for a year ahead.
To lock in the price level at which gold is presently
being quoted for delivery in six months, he buys a
futures contract at a price of, say, $350 an ounce.
If, six months later, the cash market price of gold
has risen to $370, he will have to pay his supplier that
amount to acquire gold. However, the extra $20 an ounce
cost will be offset by a $20 an ounce profit when the
futures contract bought at $350 is sold for $370. In
effect, the hedge provided insurance against an increase
in the price of gold. It locked in a net cost of $350,
regardless of what happened to the cash market price of
gold. Had the price of gold declined instead of risen,
he would have incurred a loss on his futures position
but this would have been offset by the lower cost of
acquiring gold in the cash market.
The number and variety of hedging possibilities is
practically limitless. A cattle feeder can hedge against
a decline in livestock prices and a meat packer or
supermarket chain can hedge against an increase in
livestock prices. Borrowers can hedge against higher
interest rates, and lenders against lower interest
rates. Investors can hedge against an overall decline in
stock prices, and those who anticipate having money to
invest can hedge against an increase in the over-all
level of stock prices. And the list goes on.
Whatever the hedging strategy, the common denominator
is that hedgers willingly give up the opportunity to
benefit from favorable price changes in order to achieve
protection against unfavorable price changes.
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Speculators
Were you to speculate in futures contracts, the
person taking the opposite side of your trade on any
given occasion could be a hedger or it might well be
another speculator--someone whose opinion about the
probable direction of prices differs from your own.
The arithmetic of speculation in futures
contracts--including the opportunities it offers and the
risks it involves--will be discussed in detail later on.
For now, suffice it to say that speculators are
individuals and firms who seek to profit from
anticipated increases or decreases in futures prices. In
so doing, they help provide the risk capital needed to
facilitate hedging.
Someone who expects a futures price to increase would
purchase futures contracts in the hope of later being
able to sell them at a higher price. This is known as
"going long." Conversely, someone who expects a futures
price to decline would sell futures contracts in the
hope of later being able to buy back identical and
offsetting contracts at a lower price. The practice of
selling futures contracts in anticipation of lower
prices is known as "going short." One of the attractive
features of futures trading is that it is equally easy
to profit from declining prices (by selling) as it is to
profit from rising prices (by buying).
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Floor Traders
Persons known as floor traders or locals, who buy and
sell for their own accounts on the trading floors of the
exchanges, are the least known and understood of all
futures market participants. Yet their role is an
important one. Like specialists and market makers at
securities exchanges, they help to provide market
liquidity. If there isn't a hedger or another speculator
who is immediately willing to take the other side of
your order at or near the going price, the chances are
there will be an independent floor trader who will do
so, in the hope of minutes or even seconds later being
able to make an offsetting trade at a small profit. In
the grain markets, for example, there is frequently only
one-fourth of a cent a bushel difference between the
prices at which a floor trader buys and sells.
Floor traders, of course, have no guarantee they will
realize a profit. They may end up losing money on any
given trade. Their presence, however, makes for more
liquid and competitive markets. It should be pointed
out, however, that unlike market makers or specialists,
floor traders are not obligated to maintain a liquid
market or to take the opposite side of customer orders.
| |
Reasons for Buying futures contracts |
Reasons for Selling futures contracts |
| Hedgers |
To lock in a price and thereby obtain
protection against rising prices |
To lock in a price and thereby obtain
protection against declining prices |
| Speculators and floor Traders |
To profit from rising prices |
To profit from declining prices |
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What is a Futures
Contract?
There are two types of futures contracts, those that
provide for physical delivery of a particular commodity
or item and those which call for a cash settlement. The
month during which delivery or settlement is to occur is
specified. Thus, a July futures contract is one
providing for delivery or settlement in July.
It should be noted that even in the case of
delivery-type futures contracts,very few actually result
in delivery.* Not many speculators have the desire to
take or make delivery of, say, 5,000 bushels of wheat,
or 112,000 pounds of sugar, or a million dollars worth
of U.S. Treasury bills for that matter. Rather, the vast
majority of speculators in futures markets choose to
realize their gains or losses by buying or selling
offsetting futures contracts prior to the delivery date.
Selling a contract that was previously purchased
liquidates a futures position in exactly the same way,
for example, that selling 100 shares of IBM stock
liquidates an earlier purchase of 100 shares of IBM
stock. Similarly, a futures contract that was initially
sold can be liquidated by an offsetting purchase. In
either case, gain or loss is the difference between the
buying price and the selling price.
Even hedgers generally don't make or take delivery.
Most, like the jewelry manufacturer illustrated earlier,
find it more convenient to liquidate their futures
positions and (if they realize a gain) use the money to
offset whatever adverse price change has occurred in the
cash market.
* When delivery does occur it is in the form of a
negotiable instrument (such as a warehouse receipt) that
evidences the holder's ownership of the commodity, at
some designated location.
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Why Delivery?
Since delivery on futures contracts is the exception
rather than the rule, why do most contracts even have a
delivery provision? There are two reasons. One is that
it offers buyers and sellers the opportunity to take or
make delivery of the physical commodity if they so
choose. More importantly, however, the fact that buyers
and sellers can take or make delivery helps to assure
that futures prices will accurately reflect the cash
market value of the commodity at the time the contract
expires--i.e., that futures and cash prices will
eventually converge. It is convergence that makes
hedging an effective way to obtain protection against an
adverse change in the cash market price.*
* Convergence occurs at the expiration of the futures
contract because any difference between the cash and
futures prices would quickly be negated by profit-minded
investors who would buy the commodity in the
lowest-price market and sell it in the highest-price
market until the price difference disappeared. This is
known as arbitrage and is a form of trading generally
best left to professionals in the cash and futures
markets.
Cash settlement futures contracts are precisely that,
contracts which are settled in cash rather than by
delivery at the time the contract expires. Stock index
futures contracts, for example, are settled in cash on
the basis of the index number at the close of the final
day of trading. There is no provision for delivery of
the shares of stock that make up the various indexes.
That would be impractical. With a cash settlement
contract, convergence is automatic.
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The Process of Price
Discovery
Futures prices increase and decrease largely because
of the myriad factors that influence buyers' and
sellers' judgments about what a particular commodity
will be worth at a given time in the future (anywhere
from less than a month to more than two years).
As new supply and demand developments occur and as
new and more current information becomes available,
these judgments are reassessed and the price of a
particular futures contract may be bid upward or
downward. The process of reassessment--of price
discovery--is continuous.
Thus, in January, the price of a July futures
contract would reflect the consensus of buyers' and
sellers' opinions at that time as to what the value of a
commodity or item will be when the contract expires in
July. On any given day, with the arrival of new or more
accurate information, the price of the July futures
contract might increase or decrease in response to
changing expectations.
Competitive price discovery is a major economic
function--and, indeed, a major economic benefit--of
futures trading. The trading floor of a futures exchange
is where available information about the future value of
a commodity or item is translated into the language of
price. In summary, futures prices are an ever changing
barometer of supply and demand and, in a dynamic market,
the only certainty is that prices will change.
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After the Closing Bell
Once a closing bell signals the end of a day's
trading, the exchange's clearing organization matches
each purchase made that day with its corresponding sale
and tallies each member firm's gains or losses based on
that day's price changes--a massive undertaking
considering that nearly two-thirds of a million futures
contracts are bought and sold on an average day. Each
firm, in turn, calculates the gains and losses for each
of its customers having futures contracts.
Gains and losses on futures contracts are not only
calculated on a daily basis, they are credited and
deducted on a daily basis. Thus, if a speculator were to
have, say, a $300 profit as a result of the day's price
changes, that amount would be immediately credited to
his brokerage account and, unless required for other
purposes, could be withdrawn. On the other hand, if the
day's price changes had resulted in a $300 loss, his
account would be immediately debited for that amount.
The process just described is known as a daily cash
settlement and is an important feature of futures
trading. As will be seen when we discuss margin
requirements, it is also the reason a customer who
incurs a loss on a futures position may be called on to
deposit additional funds to his account.
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The Arithmetic of
Futures Trading
To say that gains and losses in futures trading are
the result of price changes is an accurate explanation
but by no means a complete explanation. Perhaps more so
than in any other form of speculation or investment,
gains and losses in futures trading are highly
leveraged. An understanding of leverage--and of how it
can work to your advantage or disadvantage--is crucial
to an understanding of futures trading.
As mentioned in the introduction, the leverage of
futures trading stems from the fact that only a
relatively small amount of money (known as initial
margin) is required to buy or sell a futures contract.
On a particular day, a margin deposit of only $1,000
might enable you to buy or sell a futures contract
covering $25,000 worth of soybeans. Or for $10,000, you
might be able to purchase a futures contract covering
common stocks worth $260,000. The smaller the margin in
relation to the value of the futures contract, the
greater the leverage.
If you speculate in futures contracts and the price
moves in the direction you anticipated, high leverage
can produce large profits in relation to your initial
margin. Conversely, if prices move in the opposite
direction, high leverage can produce large losses in
relation to your initial margin. Leverage is a two-edged
sword.
For example, assume that in anticipation of rising
stock prices you buy one June S&P 500 stock index
futures contract at a time when the June index is
trading at 1000. And assume your initial margin
requirement is $10,000. Since the value of the futures
contract is $250 times the index, each 1 point change in
the index represents a $250 gain or loss.
Thus, an increase in the index from 1000 to 1040
would double your $10,000 margin deposit and a decrease
from 1000 to 960 would wipe it out. That's a 100% gain
or loss as the result of only a 4% change in the stock
index!
Said another way, while buying (or selling) a futures
contract provides exactly the same dollars and cents
profit potential as owning (or selling short) the actual
commodities or items covered by the contract, low margin
requirements sharply increase the percentage profit or
loss potential. For example, it can be one thing to have
the value of your portfolio of common stocks decline
from $100,000 to $96,000 (a 4% loss) but quite another
(at least emotionally) to deposit $10,000 as margin for
a futures contract and end up losing that much or more
as the result of only a 4% price decline. Futures
trading thus requires not only the necessary financial
resources but also the necessary financial and emotional
temperament.
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Trading
An absolute requisite for anyone considering trading
in futures contracts--whether it's sugar or stock
indexes, pork bellies or petroleum--is to clearly
understand the concept of leverage as well as the amount
of gain or loss that will result from any given change
in the futures price of the particular futures contract
you would be trading. If you cannot afford the risk, or
even if you are uncomfortable with the risk, the only
sound advice is don't trade. Futures trading is not for
everyone.
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Margins
As is apparent from the preceding discussion, the
arithmetic of leverage is the arithmetic of margins. An
understanding of margins--and of the several different
kinds of margin--is essential to an understanding of
futures trading.
If your previous investment experience has mainly
involved common stocks, you know that the term
margin--as used in connection with securities--has to do
with the cash down payment and money borrowed from a
broker to purchase stocks. But used in connection with
futures trading, margin has an altogether different
meaning and serves an altogether different purpose.
Rather than providing a down payment, the margin
required to buy or sell a futures contract is solely a
deposit of good faith money that can be drawn on by your
brokerage firm to cover losses that you may incur in the
course of futures trading. It is much like money held in
an escrow account. Minimum margin requirements for a
particular futures contract at a particular time are set
by the exchange on which the contract is traded. They
are typically about five percent of the current value of
the futures contract. Exchanges continuously monitor
market conditions and risks and, as necessary, raise or
reduce their margin requirements. Individual brokerage
firms may require higher margin amounts from their
customers than the exchange-set minimums.
There are two margin-related terms you should know:
Initial margin and maintenance margin.
Initial margin (sometimes called original margin) is
the sum of money that the customer must deposit with the
brokerage firm for each futures contract to be bought or
sold. On any day that profits accrue on your open
positions, the profits will be added to the balance in
your margin account. On any day losses accrue, the
losses will be deducted from the balance in your margin
account.
If and when the funds remaining available in your
margin account are reduced by losses to below a certain
level--known as the maintenance margin requirement--your
broker will require that you deposit additional funds to
bring the account back to the level of the initial
margin. Or, you may also be asked for additional margin
if the exchange or your brokerage firm raises its margin
requirements. Requests for additional margin are known
as margin calls.
Assume, for example, that the initial margin needed
to buy or sell a particular futures contract is $2,000
and that the maintenance margin requirement is $1,500.
Should losses on open positions reduce the funds
remaining in your trading account to, say, $1,400 (an
amount less than the maintenance requirement), you will
receive a margin call for the $600 needed to restore
your account to $2,000.
Before trading in futures contracts, be sure you
understand the brokerage firm's Margin Agreement and
know how and when the firm expects margin calls to be
met. Some firms may require only that you mail a
personal check. Others may insist you wire transfer
funds from your bank or provide same-day or next-day
delivery of a certified or cashier's check. If margin
calls are not met in the prescribed time and form, the
firm can protect itself by liquidating your open
positions at the available market price (possibly
resulting in an unsecured loss for which you would be
liable).
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Basic Trading
Strategies
Even if you should decide to participate in futures
trading in a way that doesn't involve having to make
day-to-day trading decisions (such as a managed account
or commodity pool), it is nonetheless useful to
understand the dollars and cents of how futures trading
gains and losses are realized. And, of course, if you
intend to trade your own account, such an understanding
is essential.
Dozens of different strategies and variations of
strategies are employed by futures traders in pursuit of
speculative profits. Here is a brief description and
illustration of several basic strategies.
Buying (Going Long) to Profit from an
Expected Price Increase
Someone expecting the price of a
particular commodity or item to increase over from a
given period of time can seek to profit by buying
futures contracts. If correct in forecasting the
direction and timing of the price change, the futures
contract can later be sold for the higher price, thereby
yielding a profit.* If the price declines rather than
increases, the trade will result in a loss. Because of
leverage, the gain or loss may be greater than the
initial margin deposit.
For example, assume it's now
January, the July soybean futures contract is presently
quoted at $6.00, and over the coming months you expect
the price to increase. You decide to deposit the
required initial margin of, say, $1,500 and buy one July
soybean futures contract. Further assume that by April
the July soybean futures price has risen to $6.40 and
you decide to take your profit by selling. Since each
contract is for 5,000 bushels, your 40-cent a bushel
profit would be 5,000 bushels x 40 cents or $2,000 less
transaction costs.
* For
simplicity examples do not take into account commissions
and other transaction costs. These costs are important,
however, and you should be sure you fully understand
them. Suppose, however, that rather
than rising to $6.40, the July soybean futures price had
declined to $5.60 and that, in order to avoid the
possibility of further loss, you elect to sell the
contract at that price. On 5,000 bushels your 40-cent a
bushel loss would thus come to $2,000 plus transaction
costs.
Note that the loss in this example exceeded your $1,500
initial margin. Your broker would then call upon you, as
needed, for additional margin funds to cover the loss.
(Going short) to profit from an expected
price decrease The only way going short to profit from
an expected price decrease differs from going long to
profit from an expected price increase is the sequence
of the trades. Instead of first buying a futures
contract, you first sell a futures contract. If, as
expected, the price declines, a profit can be realized
by later purchasing an offsetting futures contract at
the lower price. The gain per unit will be the amount by
which the purchase price is below the earlier selling
price. For example, assume that in
January your research or other available information
indicates a probable decrease in cattle prices over the
next several months. In the hope of profiting, you
deposit an initial margin of $2,000 and sell one April
live cattle futures contract at a price of, say, 65
cents a pound. Each contract is for 40,000 pounds,
meaning each 1 cent a pound change in price will
increase or decrease the value of the futures contract
by $400. If, by March, the price has declined to 60
cents a pound, an offsetting futures contract can be
purchased at 5 cents a pound below the original selling
price. On the 40,000 pound contract, that's a gain of 5
cents x 40,000 lbs. or $2,000 less transaction costs.
Assume you were
wrong. Instead of decreasing, the April live cattle
futures price increases--to, say, 70 cents a pound by
the time in March when you eventually liquidate your
short futures position through an offsetting purchase.
The outcome would be as follows:
In this example, the loss of 5 cents
a pound on the futures transaction resulted in a total
loss of the $2,000 you deposited as initial margin plus
transaction costs.
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Spreads
While most speculative futures transactions involve a
simple purchase of futures contracts to profit from an
expected price increase--or an equally simple sale to
profit from an expected price decrease--numerous other
possible strategies exist. Spreads are one example. A
spread, at least in its simplest form, involves buying
one futures contract and selling another futures
contract. The purpose is to profit from an expected
change in the relationship between the purchase price of
one and the selling price of the other. As an
illustration, assume it's now November, that the March
wheat futures price is presently $3.10 a bushel and the
May wheat futures price is presently $3.15 a bushel, a
difference of 5 cents. Your analysis of market
conditions indicates that, over the next few months, the
price difference between the two contracts will widen to
become greater than 5 cents. To profit if you are right,
you could sell the March futures contract (the lower
priced contract) and buy the May futures contract (the
higher priced contract). Assume time and events prove
you right and that, by February, the March futures price
has risen to $3.20 and May futures price is $3.35, a
difference of 15 cents. By liquidating both contracts at
this time, you can realize a net gain of 10 cents a
bushel. Since each contract is 5,000 bushels, the total
gain is $500.
| November |
Sell March wheat |
Buy May wheat |
Spread |
| |
$3.10 Bu. |
$3.15 Bu. |
5 cents |
| February |
Buy March wheat |
Sell May wheat |
|
| |
$3.20 |
$3.35 |
15 cents |
| |
$ .10 loss |
$ .20 gain |
|
Net gain 10 cents Bu. Gain on 5,000
Bu. contract $500 Had the spread (i.e. the price
difference) narrowed by 10 cents a bushel rather than
widened by 10 cents a bushel the transactions just
illustrated would have resulted in a loss of $500.
Virtually unlimited numbers and types of spread
possibilities exist, as do many other, even more complex
futures trading strategies. These, however, are beyond
the scope of an introductory booklet and should be
considered only by someone who well understands the
risk/reward arithmetic involved.
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Participating in Futures
Trading
Now that you have an overview of what futures markets
are, why they exist and how they work, the next step is
to consider various ways in which you may be able to
participate in futures trading. There are a number of
alternatives and the only best alternative--if you
decide to participate at all--is whichever one is best
for you. Also discussed is the opening of a futures
trading account, the regulatory safeguards provided
participants in futures markets, and methods for
resolving disputes, should they arise.
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Deciding How to
Participate
At the risk of oversimplification,
choosing a method of participation is largely a matter
of deciding how directly and extensively you,
personally, want to be involved in making trading
decisions and managing your account. Many futures
traders prefer to do their own research and analysis and
make their own decisions about what and when to buy and
sell. That is, they manage their own futures trades in
much the same way they would manage their own stock
portfolios. Others choose to rely on or at least
consider the recommendations of a brokerage firm or
account executive. Some purchase independent trading
advice. Others would rather have someone else be
responsible for trading their account and therefore give
trading authority to their broker. Still others purchase
an interest in a commodity trading pool.
There's no formula for deciding. Your
decision should, however, take into account such things
as your knowledge of and any previous experience in
futures trading, how much time and attention you are
able to devote to trading, the amount of capital you can
afford to commit to futures, and, by no means least,
your individual temperament and tolerance for risk. The
latter is important. Some individuals thrive on being
directly involved in the fast pace of futures trading,
others are unable, reluctant, or lack the time to make
the immediate decisions that are frequently required.
Some recognize and accept the fact that futures trading
all but inevitably involves having some losing trades.
Others lack the necessary disposition or discipline to
acknowledge that they were wrong on this particular
occasion and liquidate the position.
Many experienced traders thus suggest
that, of all the things you need to know before trading
in futures contracts, one of the most important is to
know yourself. This can help you make the right decision
about whether to participate at all and, if so, in what
way. In no event, it bears
repeating, should you participate in futures trading
unless the capital you would commit its risk capital.
That is, capital which, in pursuit of larger profits,
you can afford to lose. It should be capital over and
above that needed for necessities, emergencies, savings
and achieving your long-term investment objectives. You
should also understand that, because of the leverage
involved in futures, the profit and loss fluctuations
may be wider than in most types of investment activity
and you may be required to cover deficiencies due to
losses over and above what you had expected to commit to
futures.
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Trade Your Own
Account
This involves opening your
individual trading account and--with or without the
recommendations of the brokerage firm--making your own
trading decisions. You will also be responsible for
assuring that adequate funds are on deposit with the
brokerage firm for margin purposes, or that such funds
are promptly provided as needed.
Practically all of the major brokerage firms you are
familiar with, and many you may not be familiar with,
have departments or even separate divisions to serve
clients who want to allocate some portion of their
investment capital to futures trading. All brokerage
firms conducting futures business with the public must
be registered with the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission (CFTC, the independent regulatory agency of
the federal government that administers the Commodity
Exchange Act) as Futures Commission Merchants or
Introducing Brokers and must be Members of National
Futures Association (NFA, the industrywide
self-regulatory association).
Different firms offer different services. Some, for
example, have extensive research departments and can
provide current information and analysis concerning
market developments as well as specific trading
suggestions. Others tailor their services to clients who
prefer to make market judgments and arrive at trading
decisions on their own. Still others offer various
combinations of these and other services.
An individual trading account can be
opened either directly with a Futures Commission
Merchant or indirectly through an Introducing Broker.
Whichever course you choose, the account itself will be
carried by a Futures Commission Merchant, as will your
money. Introducing Brokers do not accept or handle
customer funds but most offer a variety of
trading-related services. Futures
Commission Merchants are required to maintain the funds
and property of their customers in segregated accounts,
separate from the firm's own money.
Along with the particular services a firm provides,
discuss the commissions and trading costs that will be
involved. And, as mentioned, clearly understand how the
firm requires that any margin calls be met. If you have
a question about whether a firm is properly registered
with the CFTC and is a Member of NFA, you can (and
should) contact NFA's Information Center toll-free at
800-621-3570 (within Illinois call 800-572-9400).
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Have Someone Manage
Your Account
A managed account is also your
individual account. The major difference is that you
give someone rise--an account manager--written power of
attorney to make and execute decisions about what and
when to trade. He or she will have discretionary
authority to buy or sell for your account or will
contact you for approval to make trades he or she
suggests. You, of course, remain fully responsible for
any losses which may be incurred and, as necessary, for
meeting margin calls, including making up any
deficiencies that exceed your margin deposits.
Although an account manager is likely
to be managing the accounts of other persons at the same
time, there is no sharing of gains or losses of other
customers. Trading gains or losses in your account will
result solely from trades which were made for your
account. Many Futures Commission
Merchants and Introducing Brokers accept managed
accounts. In most instances, the amount of money needed
to open a managed account is larger than the amount
required to establish an account you intend to trade
yourself. Different firms and account managers, however,
have different requirements and the range can be quite
wide. Be certain to read and understand all of the
literature and agreements you receive from the broker.
Some account managers have their own
trading approaches and accept only clients to whom that
approach is acceptable. Others tailor their trading to a
client's objectives. In either case, obtain enough
information and ask enough questions to assure yourself
that your money will be managed in a way that's
consistent with your goals. Discuss
fees. In addition to commissions on trades made for your
account, it is not uncommon for account managers to
charge a management fee, and/or there may be some
arrangement for the manager to participate in the net
profits that his management produces. These charges are
required to be fully disclosed in advance. Make sure you
know about every charge to be made to your account and
what each charge is for. While
there can be no assurance that past performance will be
indicative of future performance, it can be useful to
inquire about the track record of an account manager you
are considering. Account managers associated with a
Futures Commission Merchant or Introducing Broker must
generally meet certain experience requirements if the
account is to be traded on a discretionary basis.
Finally, take note of whether the
account management agreement includes a provision to
automatically liquidate positions and close out the
account if and when losses exceed a certain amount. And,
of course, you should know and agree on what will be
done with profits, and what, if any, restrictions apply
to withdrawals from the account.
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Use a Commodity
Trading Advisor
As the term implies, a Commodity
Trading Advisor is an individual (or firm) that, for a
fee, provides advice on commodity trading, including
specific trading recommendations such as when to
establish a particular long or short position and when
to liquidate that position. Generally, to help you
choose trading strategies that match your trading
objectives, advisors offer analyses and judgments as to
the prospective rewards and risks of the trades they
suggest. Trading recommendations may be communicated by
phone, wire or mail. Some offer the opportunity for you
to phone when you have questions and some provide a
frequently updated hotline you can call for a recording
of current information and trading advice.
Even though you may trade on the basis
of an advisor's recommendations, you will need to open
your own account with, and send your margin payments
directly to, a Futures Commission Merchant. Commodity
Trading Advisors cannot accept or handle their customers
funds unless they are also registered as Futures
Commission Merchants. Some
Commodity Trading Advisors offer managed accounts. The
account itself, however, must still be with a Futures
Commission Merchant and in your name, with the advisor
designated in writing to make and execute trading
decisions on a discretionary basis.
CFTC Regulations require that Commodity Trading Advisors
provide their customers, in advance, with what is called
a Disclosure Document. Read it carefully and ask the
Commodity Trading Advisor to explain any points you
don't understand. If your money is important to you, so
is the information contained in the Disclosure Document!
The prospectus-like document contains
information about the advisor, his experience and, by no
means least, his current (and any previous) performance
records. If you use an advisor to manage your account,
he must first obtain a signed acknowledgment from you
that you have received and understood the Disclosure
Document. As in any method of participating in futures
trading, discuss and understand the advisor's fee
arrangements. And if he will be managing your account,
ask the same questions you would ask of any account
manager you are considering.
Commodity Trading Advisors must be registered as such
with the CFTC, and those that accept authority to manage
customer accounts must also be Members of NFA. You can
verify that these requirements have been met by calling
NFA toll-free at 800-621-3570 (within Illinois call
800-572-9400).
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Participate in
Commodity Pool
Another alternative method of
participating in futures trading is through a commodity
pool, which is similar in concept to a common stock
mutual fund. It is the only method of participation in
which you will not have your own individual trading
account. Instead, your money will be combined with that
of other pool participants and, in effect, traded as a
single account. You share in the profits or losses of
the pool in proportion to your investment in the pool.
One potential advantage is greater diversification of
risks than you might obtain if you were to establish
your own trading account. Another is that your risk of
loss is generally limited to your investment in the
pool, because most pools are formed as limited
partnerships. And you won't be subject to margin calls.
Bear in mind, however, that the risks
which a pool incurs in any given futures transaction are
no different than the risks incurred by an individual
trader. The pool still trades in futures contracts which
are highly leveraged and in markets which can be highly
volatile. And like an individual trader, the pool can
suffer substantial losses as well as realize substantial
profits. A major consideration, therefore, is who will
be managing the pool in terms of directing its trading.
While a pool must execute all of its
trades through a brokerage firm which is registered with
the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant, it may or may
not have any other affiliation with the brokerage firm.
Some brokerage firms, to serve those customers who
prefer to participate in commodity trading through a
pool, either operate or have a relationship with one or
more commodity trading pools. Other pools operate
independently. A Commodity Pool
Operator cannot accept your money until it has provided
you with a Disclosure Document that contains information
about the pool operator, the pool's principals and any
outside persons who will be providing trading advice or
making trading decisions. It must also disclose the
previous performance records, if any, of all persons who
will be operating or advising the pool lot, if none, a
statement to that effect). Disclosure Documents contain
important information and should be carefully read
before you invest your money. Another requirement is
that the Disclosure Document advise you of the risks
involved. In the case of a new
pool, there is frequently a provision that the pool will
not begin trading until (and unless) a certain amount of
money is raised. Normally, a time deadline is set and
the Commodity Pool Operator is required to state in the
Disclosure Document what that deadline is (or, if there
is none, that the time period for raising, funds is
indefinite). Be sure you understand the terms, including
how your money will be invested in the meantime, what
interest you will earn (if any), and how and when your
investment will be returned in the event the pool does
not commence trading. Determine
whether you will be responsible for any losses in excess
of your investment in the pool. If so, this must be
indicated prominently at the beginning of the pool's
Disclosure Document. Ask about fees
and other costs, including what, if any, initial charges
will be made against your investment for organizational
or administrative expenses. Such information should be
noted in the Disclosure Document. You should also
determine from the Disclosure Document how the pool's
operator and advisor are compensated. Understand, too,
the procedure for redeeming your shares in the pool, any
restrictions that may exist, and provisions for
liquidating and dissolving the pool if more than a
certain percentage of the capital were to be lost,
Ask about the pool operator's general
trading philosophy, what types of contracts will be
traded, whether they will be day-traded, etc.
With few exceptions, Commodity Pool
Operators must be registered with the CFTC and be
Members of NFA. You can verify that these requirements
have been met by contacting NFA toll-free at
800-621-3570 (within Illinois call 800-572-9400).
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Regulation of
Futures Trading
Firms and individuals that conduct futures trading
business with the public are subject to regulation by
the CFTC and by NFA. All futures exchanges are also
regulated by the CFTC. NFA is a congressionally
authorized self-regulatory organization subject to CFTC
oversight. It exercises regulatory Authority with the
CFTC over Futures Commission Merchants, Introducing
Brokers, Commodity Trading Advisors, Commodity Pool
Operators and Associated Persons (salespersons) of all
of the foregoing. The NFA staff consists of more than
140 field auditors and investigators. In addition, NFA
has the responsibility for registering persons and firms
that are required to be registered with the CFTC. Firms
and individuals that violate NFA rules of professional
ethics and conduct or that fail to comply with strictly
enforced financial and record-keeping requirements can,
if circumstances warrant, be permanently barred from
engaging in any futures-related business with the
public. The enforcement powers of the CFTC are similar
to those of other major federal regulatory agencies,
including the power to seek criminal prosecution by the
Department of Justice where circumstances warrant such
action. Futures Commission Merchants which are members
of an exchange are subject to not only CFTC and NFA
regulation but to regulation by the exchanges of which
they are members. Exchange regulatory staffs are
responsible, subject to CFTC oversight, for the business
conduct and financial responsibility of their member
firms. Violations of exchange rules can result in
substantial fines, suspension or revocation of trading
privileges, and loss of exchange membership.
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Words of Caution
It is against the law for any person or firm to offer
futures contracts for purchase or sale unless those
contracts are traded on one of the nation's regulated
futures exchanges and unless the person or firm is
registered with the CFTC. Moreover, persons and firms
conducting futures-related business with the public must
be Members of NFA. Thus, you should be extremely
cautious if approached by someone attempting to sell you
a commodity-related investment unless you are able to
verify that the offeror is registered with the CFTC and
is a Member of NFA. In a number of cases, sellers of
illegal off-exchange futures contracts have labeled
their investments by different names--such as "deferred
delivery," "forward" or "partial payment" contracts--in
an attempt to avoid the strict laws applicable to
regulated futures trading. Many operate out of telephone
boiler rooms, employ high-pressure and misleading sales
tactics, and may state that they are exempt from
registration and regulatory requirements. This, in
itself, should be reason enough to conduct a check
before you write a check. You can quickly verify whether
a particular firm or person is currently registered with
the CFTC and is an NFA Member by phoning NFA toll-free
at 800-621-3570 (within Illinois call 800-572-9400).
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Establishing an
Account
At the time you apply to establish a futures trading
account, you can expect to be asked for certain
information beyond simply your name, address and phone
number. The requested information will generally include
(but not necessarily be limited to) your income, net
worth, what previous investment or futures trading
experience you have had, and any other information
needed in order to advise you of the risks involved in
trading futures contracts. At a minimum, the person or
firm who will handle your account is required to provide
you with risk disclosure documents or statements
specified by the CFTC and obtain written acknowledgment
that you have received and understood them. Opening a
futures account is a serious decision--no less so than
making any major financial investment--and should
obviously be approached as such. Just as you wouldn't
consider buying a car or a house without carefully
reading and understanding the terms of the contract,
neither should you establish a trading account without
first reading and understanding the Account Agreement
and all other documents supplied by your broker. It is
in your interest and the firm's interest that you dearly
know your rights and obligations as well as the rights
and obligations of the firm with which you are dealing
before you enter into any futures transaction. If you
have questions about exactly what any provisions of the
Agreement mean, don't hesitate to ask. A good and
continuing relationship can exist only if both parties
have, from the outset, a clear understanding of the
relationship. Nor should you be hesitant to ask, in
advance, what services you will be getting for the
trading commissions the firm charges. As indicated
earlier, not all firms offer identical services. And not
all clients have identical needs. If it is important to
you, for example, you might inquire about the firm's
research capability, and whatever reports it makes
available to clients. Other subjects of inquiry could be
how transaction and statement information will be
provided, and how your orders will be handled and
executed.
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If a Dispute Should Arise
All but a small percentage of transactions involving
regulated futures contracts take place without problems
or misunderstandings. However, in any business in which
some 150 million or more contracts are traded each year,
occasional disagreements are inevitable. Obviously, the
best way to resolve a disagreement is through direct
discussions by the parties involved. Failing this,
however, participants in futures markets have several
alternatives (unless some particular method has been
agreed to in advance). Under certain circumstances, it
may be possible to seek resolution through the exchange
where the futures contracts were traded. Or a claim for
reparations may be filed with the CFTC. However, a
newer, generally faster and less expensive alternative
is to apply to resolve the disagreement through the
arbitration program conducted by National Futures
Association. There are several advantages:
- You can elect, if you prefer, to have arbitrators
who have no connection with the futures industry.
- You do not have to allege or prove that any law or
rule was broken only that you were dealt with
improperly or unfairly.
- In some cases, it may be possible to conduct
arbitration entirely through written submissions. If a
hearing is required, it can generally be scheduled at
a time and place convenient for both parties.
- Unless you wish to do so, you do not have to
employ an attorney.
For a plain language explanation of the arbitration
program and how it works, write or phone NFA for a copy
of Arbitration: A Way to Resolve Futures-Related
Disputes. The booklet is available at no cost.
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What to Look for in a
Futures Contract?
Whatever type of investment you are
considering--including but not limited to futures
contracts--it makes sense to begin by obtaining as much
information as possible about that particular
investment. The more you know in advance, the less
likely there will be surprises later on. Moreover, even
among futures contracts, there are important differences
which--because they can affect your investment
results--should be taken into account in making your
investment decisions.
The Contract Unit
Delivery-type futures contracts stipulate the
specifications of the commodity to be delivered (such as
5,000 bushels of grain, 40,000 pounds of livestock, or
100 troy ounces of gold). Foreign currency futures
provide for delivery of a specified number of marks,
francs, yen, pounds or pesos. U.S. Treasury obligation
futures are in terms of instruments having a stated face
value (such as $100,000 or $1 million) at maturity.
Futures contracts that call for cash settlement rather
than delivery are based on a given index number times a
specified dollar multiple. This is the case, for
example, with stock index futures. Whatever the
yardstick, it's important to know precisely what it is
you would be buying or selling, and the quantity you
would be buying or selling.
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How Prices are Quoted
Futures prices are usually quoted the same way prices
are quoted in the cash market (where a cash market
exists). That is, in dollars, cents, and sometimes
fractions of a cent, per bushel, pound or ounce; also in
dollars, cents and increments of a cent for foreign
currencies; and in points and percentages of a point for
financial instruments. Cash settlement contract prices
are quoted in terms of an index number, usually stated
to two decimal points. Be certain you understand the
price quotation system for the particular futures
contract you are considering.
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Minimum Price
Changes
Exchanges establish the minimum amount that the price
can fluctuate upward or downward. This is known as the
"tick" For example, each tick for grain is 0.25 cents
per bushel. On a 5,000 bushel futures contract, that's
$12.50. On a gold futures contract, the tick is 10 cents
per ounce, which on a 100 ounce contract is $10. You'll
want to familiarize yourself with the minimum price
fluctuation--the tick size--for whatever futures
contracts you plan to trade. And, of course, you'll need
to know how a price change of any given amount will
affect the value of the contract.
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Daily Price Limits
Exchanges establish daily price limits for trading in
futures contracts. The limits are stated in terms of the
previous day's closing price plus and minus so many
cents or dollars per trading unit. Once a futures price
has increased by its daily limit, there can be no
trading at any higher price until the next day of
trading. Conversely, once a futures price has declined
by its daily limit, there can be no trading at any lower
price until the next day of trading. Thus, if the daily
limit for a particular grain is currently 10 cents a
bushel and the previous day's settlement price was
$3.00, there can not be trading during the current day
at any price below $2.90 or above $3.10. The price is
allowed to increase or decrease by the limit amount each
day. For some contracts, daily price limits are
eliminated during the month in which the contract
expires. Because prices can become particularly volatile
during the expiration month (also called the "delivery"
or "spot" month), persons lacking experience in futures
trading may wish to liquidate their positions prior to
that time. Or, at the very least, trade cautiously and
with an understanding of the risks which may be
involved. Daily price limits set by the exchanges are
subject to change. They can, for example, be increased
once the market price has increased or decreased by the
existing limit for a given number of successive days.
Because of daily price limits, there may be occasions
when it is not possible to liquidate an existing futures
position at will. In this event, possible alternative
strategies should be discussed with a broker
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Position Limits
Although the average trader is unlikely to ever
approach them, exchanges and the CFTC establish limits
on the maximum speculative position that any one person
can have at one time in any one futures contract. The
purpose is to prevent one buyer or seller from being
able to exert undue influence on the price in either the
establishment or liquidation of positions. Position
limits are stated in number of contracts or total units
of the commodity. The easiest way to obtain the types of
information just discussed is to ask your broker or
other advisor to provide you with a copy of the contract
specifications for the specific futures contracts you
are thinking about trading. Or you can obtain the
information from the exchange where the contract is
traded.
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Understanding (and
Managing) the Risks of Futures Trading
Anyone buying or selling futures contracts should
clearly understand that the Risks of any given
transaction may result in a Futures Trading loss. The
loss may exceed not only the amount of the initial
margin but also the entire amount deposited in the
account or more. Moreover, while there are a number of
steps which can be taken in an effort to limit the size
of possible losses, there can be no guarantees that
these steps will prove effective. Well-informed futures
traders should, nonetheless, be familiar with available
risk management possibilities.
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Choosing a Futures
Contract
Just as different common stocks or different bonds
may involve different degrees of probable risk. and
reward at a particular time, so may different futures
contracts. The market for one commodity may, at present,
be highly volatile, perhaps because of supply-demand
uncertainties which--depending on future
developments--could suddenly propel prices sharply
higher or sharply lower. The market for some other
commodity may currently be less volatile, with greater
likelihood that prices will fluctuate in a narrower
range. You should be able to evaluate and choose the
futures contracts that appear--based on present
information--most likely to meet your objectives and
willingness to accept risk. Keep in mind, however, that
neither past nor even present price behavior provides
assurance of what will occur in the future. Prices that
have been relatively stable may become highly volatile
(which is why many individuals and firms choose to hedge
against unforeseeable price changes).
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Liquidity
There can be no ironclad assurance that, at all
times, a liquid market will exist for offsetting a
futures contract that you have previously bought or
sold. This could be the case if, for example, a futures
price has increased or decreased by the maximum
allowable daily limit and there is no one presently
willing to buy the futures contract you want to sell or
sell the futures contract you want to buy. Even on a
day-to-day basis, some contracts and some delivery
months tend to be more actively traded and liquid than
others. Two useful indicators of liquidity are the
volume of trading and the open interest (the number of
open futures positions still remaining to be liquidated
by an offsetting trade or satisfied by delivery). These
figures are usually reported in newspapers that carry
futures quotations. The information is also available
from your broker or advisor and from the exchange where
the contract is traded.
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Timing
In futures trading, being right about the direction
of prices isn't enough. It is also necessary to
anticipate the timing of price changes. The reason, of
course, is that an adverse price change may, in the
short run, result in a greater loss than you are willing
to accept in the hope of eventually being proven right
in the long run. Example: In January, you deposit
initial margin of $1,500 to buy a May wheat futures
contract at $3.30--anticipating that, by spring, the
price will climb to $3.50 or higher No sooner than you
buy the contract, the price drops to $3.15, a loss of
$750. To avoid the risk of a further loss, you have your
broker liquidate the position. The possibility that the
price may now recover--and even climb to $3.50 or
above--is of no consolation. The lesson to be learned is
that deciding when to buy or sell a futures contract can
be as important as deciding what futures contract to buy
or sell. In fact, it can be argued that timing is the
key to successful futures trading.
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Stop Orders
A stop order is an order, placed with your broker, to
buy or sell a particular futures contract at the market
price if and when the price reaches a specified level.
Stop orders are often used by futures traders in an
effort to limit the amount they. might lose if the
futures price moves against their position. For example,
were you to purchase a crude oil futures contract at
$21.00 a barrel and wished to limit your loss to $1.00 a
barrel, you might place a stop order to sell an
off-setting contract if the price should fall to, say,
$20.00 a barrel. If and when the market reaches whatever
price you specify, a stop order becomes an order to
execute the desired trade at the best price immediately
obtainable. There can be no guarantee, however, that it
will be possible under all market conditions to execute
the order at the price specified. In an active, volatile
market, the market price may be declining (or rising) so
rapidly that there is no opportunity to liquidate your
position at the stop price you have designated. Under
these circumstances, the broker's only obligation is to
execute your order at the best price that is available.
In the event that prices have risen or fallen by the
maximum daily limit, and there is presently no trading
in the contract (known as a "lock limit" market), it may
not be possible to execute your order at any price. In
addition, although it happens infrequently, it is
possible that markets may be lock limit for more than
one day, resulting in substantial losses to futures
traders who may find it impossible to liquidate losing
futures positions. Subject to the kinds of limitations
just discussed, stop orders can nonetheless provide a
useful tool for the futures trader who seeks to limit
his losses. Far more often than not, it will be
possible. for the broker to execute a stop order at or
near the specified price. In addition to providing a way
to limit losses, stop orders can also be employed to
protect profits. For instance, if you have bought crude
oil futures at $21.00 a barrel and the price is now at
$24.00 a barrel, you might wish to place a stop order to
sell if and when the price declines to $23.00. This
(again subject to the described limitations of stop
orders) could protect $2.00 of your existing $3.00
profit while still allowing you to benefit from any
continued increase in price.
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Spreads
Spreads involve the purchase of one futures contract
and the sale of a different futures contract in the hope
of profiting from a widening or narrowing of the price
difference. Because gains and losses occur only as the
result of a change in the price difference--rather than
as a result of a change in the overall level of futures
prices--spreads are often considered more conservative
and less risky than having an outright long or short
futures position. In general, this may be the case. It
should be recognized, though, that the loss from a
spread can be as great as--or even greater than--that
which might be incurred in having an outright futures
position. An adverse widening or narrowing of the spread
during a particular time period may exceed the change in
the overall level of futures prices, and it is possible
to experience losses on both of the futures contracts
involved (that is, on both legs of the spread).
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Options on Futures
Contracts
What are known as put and call options are being
traded on a growing number of futures contracts. The
principal attraction of buying options is that they make
it possible to speculate on increasing or decreasing
futures prices with a known and limited risk. The most
that the buyer of an option can lose is the cost of
purchasing the option (known as the option "premium")
plus transaction costs. Options can be most easily
understood when call options and put options are
considered separately, since, in fact, they are totally
separate and distinct. Buying or selling a call in no
way involves a put, and buying or selling a put in no
way involves a call.
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Buying Call Options
The buyer of a call option acquires the right but not
the obligation to purchase (go long) a particular
futures contract at a specified price at any time during
the life of the option. Each option specifies the
futures contract which may be purchased (known as the
"underlying" futures contract) and the price at which it
can be purchased (known as the "exercise" or "strike"
price). A March Treasury bond 84 call option would
convey the right to buy one March U.S. Treasury bond
futures contract at a price of $84,000 at any time
during the life of the option. One reason for buying
call options is to profit from an anticipated increase
in the underlying futures price. A call option buyer
will realize a net profit if, upon exercise, the
underlying futures price is above the option exercise
price by more than the premium paid for the option. Or a
profit can be realized it, prior to expiration, the
option rights can be sold for more than they cost.
Example: You expect lower interest rates to result in
higher bond prices (interest rates and bond prices move
inversely). To profit if you are right, you buy a June
T-bond 82 call. Assume the premium you pay is $2,000.
If, at the expiration of the option (in May) the June
T-bond futures price is 88, you can realize a gain of 6
(that's $6,000) by exercising or selling the option that
was purchased at 82. Since you paid $2,000 for the
option, your net profit is $4,000 less transaction
costs. As mentioned, the most that an option buyer can
lose is the option premium plus transaction costs. Thus,
in the preceding example, the most you could have
lost--no matter how wrong you might have been about the
direction and timing of interest rates and bond
prices--would have been the $2,000 premium you paid for
the option plus transaction costs. In contrast if you
had an outright long position in the underlying futures
contract, your potential loss would be unlimited. It
should be pointed out, however, that while an option
buyer has a limited risk (the loss of the option
premium), his profit potential is reduced by the amount
of the premium. In the example, the option buyer
realized a net profit of $4,000. For someone with an
outright long position in the June T-bond futures
contract, an increase in the futures price from 82 to 88
would have yielded a net profit of $6,000 less
transaction costs. Although an option buyer cannot lose
more than the premium paid for the option, he can lose
the entire amount of the premium. This will be the case
if an option held until expiration is not worthwhile to
exercise.
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Buying Put Options
Whereas a call option conveys the right to purchase
(go long) a particular futures contract at a specified
price, a put option conveys the right to sell (go short)
a particular futures contract at a specified price. Put
options can be purchased to profit from an anticipated
price decrease. As in the case of call options, the most
that a put option buyer can lose, if he is wrong about
the direction or timing of the price change, is the
option premium plus transaction costs. Example:
Expecting a decline in the price of gold, you pay a
premium of $1,000 to purchase an October 320 gold put
option. The option gives you the right to sell a 100
ounce gold futures contract for $320 an ounce. Assume
that, at expiration, the October futures price has--as
you expected-declined to $290 an ounce. The option
giving you the right to sell at $320 can thus be sold or
exercised at a gain of $30 an ounce. On 100 ounces,
that's $3,000. After subtracting $1,000 paid for the
option, your net profit comes to $2,000. Had you been
wrong about the direction or timing of a change in the
gold futures price, the most you could have lost would
have been the $1,000 premium paid for the option plus
transaction costs. However, you could have lost the
entire premium.
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How Option Premiums
are Determined
Option premiums are determined the same way futures
prices are determined, through active competition
between buyers and sellers. Three major variables
influence the premium for a given option: * The option's
exercise price, or, more specifically, the relationship
between the exercise price and the current price of the
underlying futures contract. All else being equal, an
option that is already worthwhile to exercise (known as
an "in-the-money" option) commands a higher premium than
an option that is not yet worthwhile to exercise (an
"out-of-the-money" option). For example, if a gold
contract is currently selling at $295 an ounce, a put
option conveying the right to sell gold at $320 an ounce
is more valuable than a put option that conveys the
right to sell gold at only $300 an ounce. * The length
of time remaining until expiration. All else being
equal, an option with a long period of time remaining
until expiration commands a higher premium than an
option with a short period of time remaining until
expiration because it has more time in which to become
profitable. Said another way, an option is an eroding
asset. Its time value declines as it approaches
expiration. * The volatility of the underlying futures
contract. All rise being equal, the greater the
volatility the higher the option premium. In a volatile
market, the option stands a greater chance of becoming
profitable to exercise.
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Selling Options
At this point, you might well ask, who sells the
options that option buyers purchase? The answer is that
options are sold by other market participants known as
option writers, or grantors. Their sole reason for
writing options is to earn the premium paid by the
option buyer. If the option expires without being
exercised (which is what the option writer hopes will
happen), the writer retains the full amount of the
premium. If the option buyer exercises the option,
however, the writer must pay the difference between the
market value and the exercise price. It should be
emphasized and clearly recognized that unlike an option
buyer who has a limited risk (the loss of the option
premium), the writer of an option has unlimited risk.
This is because any gain realized by the option buyer if
and when he exercises the option will become a loss for
the option writer.
| |
Reward |
Risk |
| Option Buyer |
Except for the premium, an option buyer has
the same profit potential as someone with an
outright position in the underlying futures
contract. |
An option maximum loss: is the premium paid
for the option |
| Option Writer |
An option writer's maximum profit is premium
received for writing the option |
An option writer's loss is unlimited. Except
for the premium received, risk is the same as
having an outright position in the underlying
futures contract. |
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In Closing
The foregoing is, at most, a brief and incomplete
discussion of a complex topic. Options trading has its
own vocabulary and its own arithmetic. If you wish to
consider trading in options on futures contracts, you
should discuss the possibility with your broker and read
and thoroughly understand the Options Disclosure
Document which he is required to provide. In addition,
have your broker provide you with educational and other
literature prepared by the exchanges on which options
are traded. Or contact the exchange directly. A number
of excellent publications are available. In no way, it
should be emphasized, should anything discussed herein
be considered trading advice or recommendations. That
should be provided by your broker or advisor. Similarly,
your broker or advisor--as well as the exchanges where
futures contracts are traded--are your best sources for
additional, more detailed information about futures
trading.
Source: National Futures Association |